Markets Live Updates: ASX Set to Fall as RBA Rate Hike Looms, Precious Metals and Crypto Melt Down
Pinned
1 hour ago, Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Market Snapshot
By Stephen Letts
- ASX 200 Futures: -0.7% to 8,767 points
- Australian Dollar: -0.2% to 69.48 US Cents
- Wall Street (Friday): S&P500 -0.4%, Dow -0.4%, Nasdaq -1.3%
- Europe (Friday): Dax +0.9%, FTSE +0.5%, Eurostoxx +1.0%
- Spot Gold: -8.9% to $US4,864/ounce
- Brent Crude: -0.2% to $US69.32/barrel
- Iron Ore (Friday): -0.9% to $US103.90/tonne
- Bitcoin: -7.9% to $US77,484
Prices current at around 7:00 AM AEDT
Key Event
5 minutes ago, Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Chinese Manufacturing Activity Contracts in January
By Stephen Letts
Chinese factory activity headed back to contractionary territory to start the year, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics over the weekend.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in January, from 50.1 in December, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.
Sub-indexes of new orders and new export orders also saw declines, respectively down to 49.2 from 50.8 in December and 47.8 from 49.0 in December.
The alternative, unofficial Rating Dog PMI, which has stronger weighting on SMEs, is expected to be released later.
Key Event
29 minutes ago, Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:44 PM
This Week: RBA Rates Decision
By Stephen Letts
Australia:
Monday: Home Prices (Jan), Job Ads
Tuesday: RBA Rates Decision, Dwelling Approvals (Dec)
Thursday: Trade Balance (Dec)
International:
Tuesday: US — ISM Manufacturing (Jan)
Wednesday: EU — CPI (Jan)
Thursday: UK — BoE Rates Decision
Friday: EU — ECB Rates Decision
US — Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment
The key event for the week is the RBA's rates decision on Tuesday.
A fair bit has already been written about this already, so to keep it brief, the consensus is that the board will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% to try and head off what appears to be rising inflation.
Other local data of interest is Tuesday's dwelling approvals.
It bounces around a lot. The consensus is for December's approvals to fall for no other reason than they jumped 12% in November.
The Bank of England (Thursday) and ECB (Friday) also meet to discuss monetary policy — both are expected to remain on hold, the ECB at 3.75% and ECB at 2.0%.
US jobs data (Saturday morning AEDT) is expected to show only modest growth, but with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%.
Key Event
45 minutes ago, Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:28 PM
Wall Street Slips, Precious Metals Melt Down
By Stephen Letts
It can't be said that Wall Street traders welcomed the announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Donald Trump's nomination to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
They didn't exactly race to exits, nor did they head to the fridge to uncork the champagne — they merely sold some stock, took some profits and headed off for the weekend.
The S&P 500 and Dow slipped 0.4%, the Nasdaq continued to lose favor, down 1.3%.
Precious metals traders, on the other hand, ran around like their hair was on fire.
Gold had its most savage sell-off since 1983, down around 10%, gold futures suffered worse.
Spot silver was down almost 30% (the largest daily drop on record) and platinum fell 19%.
Actually, it was probably more calculating than panic, as many in the game were happy to trouser some hefty recent profits.
Despite the retreat, gold gained 13% over the month and silver was up 17%.
The ASX, with a significant gold sector, looks like falling quite sharply this morning.
ASX futures trading closed on Saturday morning, pointing to a 0.7% fall on opening.
While there are many currents swirling around markets at the moment, the announcement of Mr. Warsh's nomination, with his reputation for being an inflation hawk, seemed to be the trigger for Friday's events.
However, it is doubtful he would have got the nod from Mr. Trump if his big plan was to immediately start jacking up rates.
IG's Tony Sycamore says Mr. Warsh may not be as 'hawkish' as the pre-publicity suggests.
'Kevin Warsh brings a degree of credibility and removes one layer of uncertainty currently plaguing markets,' Mr. Sycamore said.
'It remains to be seen how his traditionally hawkish leanings — which included pushing back against past Fed balance sheet expansion and advocating for higher interest rates due to inflation concerns — have evolved.
'More recently, he has shown a shift toward a more dovish stance. Consequently, he is expected to at least initially advocate for easier policy, in line with President Trump's desired path for lower rates.'
Nonetheless, the US dollar gained (pushing the Aussie dollar back below 70 US cents), as long-dated US Treasury yields steepened a touch.
Europe markets largely ignored the US and gold action, ending the month on a strong note, up around 1%, despite a forecast of corporate earnings slipping around 4% this year.
Oil hovered around its six-month high with Brent crude slipping marginally, just under the $US70/barrel level.
Cryptos had an ugly time of it, largely because Mr. Warsh is an advocate of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, and they have benefitted from a lot of liquidity sloshing around the markets.
Having been on the skids lately, Bitcoin's fall was accelerated by the liquidation of a number of highly geared positions as the price tumbled through various trigger points.
Bitcoins trading well below $US80,000, almost 40% down on its peak back in October.
1 hour ago, Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 7:53 PM
Good Morning
By Stephen Letts
Good morning and welcome to another day on the ABC markets and finance blog.
Stephen Letts from ABC business team limbering up for a blow-by-blow coverage of the day's events, where every post is hopefully a winner, but none should be construed as financial advice.
In short, it looks like the local market is in for a bruising day after Wall Street slipped on Friday and precious metals were hammered.
Futures trading is pointing to the ASX falling around 0.7% on opening, having eked out a marginal 0.1% gain last week and almost 2% over January.
It's a busy week ahead with an RBA rates decision tomorrow and the February corporate reporting season kicking off.
As always, the game's afoot, so let's get blogging.
